Market Intelligence: Takeaways from the 2025 NMHC Annual Meeting

Jay Parsons, a respected voice in multifamily economics, recently shared an excellent analysis of key takeaways from the NMHC Annual Meeting, our industry's premier gathering of investors and leaders.

Below is Parsons' complete thread, followed by our summary of the key points most relevant to value-add multifamily investors. BTW, I recommend subscribing to Jay’s newsletter: Rental Housing Economics with Jay Parsons

My Thoughts

Jay Parsons' insights from the NMHC Annual Meeting highlight some critical dynamics shaping the current market:

• Supply and Demand Outlook: Thanks to inflated interest rates, the multifamily development pipeline is shrinking nationwide. Developers hit the brakes on new projects 1 year ago, which is why completions are expected to fall below average by next year. With construction starts remaining low and few signs of change on the horizon, existing multifamily properties could benefit from increasingly favorable supply dynamics. This structural shift in the development landscape suggests property owners may find themselves well-positioned as supply constraints begin to materialize.

• Transaction Market Reality: Despite strong fundamentals, deal flow remains stagnant due to interest rates. A brief window of optimism emerged when 10-year Treasury yields dropped into the 3% range, but current mid-4% rates continue to create challenges. The core issue? Deal math simply doesn't work with higher debt costs unless sellers accept lower prices.

• Financing Showing Signs of Life: An encouraging development is emerging in the construction lending space. Banks are returning to the market, though cautiously. They're primarily focused on maintaining rather than growing their exposure levels. As existing projects complete and move to permanent financing, banks are finding themselves with the capacity to lend and are becoming more competitive on terms – while maintaining disciplined underwriting standards.

-Ben Michel

Ben Michel is the founder of Ridgeview Property Group, an investment firm specializing in multifamily real estate. Register Here to be notified of available investment opportunities.